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Since late September, I have been in the United States to participate in the United Nations General Assembly. After that, I drove from the East Coast all the way through to the central region, passing through ten states. Here, I’d like to share with you my personal experiences.
**The Journey**
This was actually my first time driving by myself in the United States. Before, when I was in New York, I didn’t dare to drive because parking there was as difficult and expensive as in Paris. This time, I started from Second Avenue in Manhattan, New York, and drove to Harvard University in Boston, Massachusetts. Then, I passed through the lake area in New Fairfield County, Connecticut, and continued southward through New Jersey. After arriving in Washington, D.C. to attend the 75th anniversary celebration activities, I headed northwest, passing through Maryland and West Virginia towards the central region. I took the route through Fulton County and reached Pittsburgh, the capital of the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, which was once the steel capital. After a brief stop there, I drove through Muskingum County, Ohio, and reached Cincinnati, Kentucky, and then Louisville. Finally, I arrived at Elizabethtown, the farthest destination of this trip. At last, I returned to Cincinnati and boarded a flight to Toronto. Counting it up, within a week, not only the places where I stayed, but also the states I might have passed through were probably more than ten. On the longest day, I drove continuously for eleven hours just to cover the distance, and sometimes I had to take a rest in the car. When I woke up and opened my eyes, it was hard to immediately tell where the road was. However, one thing was certain: along the way, the two major parties were vying for a sense of presence wherever I could see.
**The East Coast: A Battle of Campaign Ads**
On the star-studded East Coast, whether it was the bustling New York or the history-rich Boston, both firmly held onto their deep blue political leanings. Of course, the Republicans didn’t seem to have given up on this blue stronghold. It started from the bridges: In the picture above, on the必经 and必堵 road of the expressway from New York to Boston, from a distance, I saw someone waving and repeatedly knocking on the bridge railing on an overpass. As a bored driver like me who was driving slowly, I couldn’t help but be attracted by my curiosity. It was only when I got closer that I could clearly see that what he was knocking on was “Vote for Trump”. These “American Bridge Guards” who supported Trump didn’t seem as reckless as they looked. And on those legitimate billboards on the East Coast expressway that already served an advertising function, I don’t know if the Democrats thought they had the upper hand, but almost all the campaign ads I could see belonged to Trump.
Especially from Washington, D.C., traveling southeast to northwest to Pittsburgh, all the billboards, big and small, even at the village level, were either for Trump or Vance. I even saw a sign for Nelson Mandela, but not a single sign for Harris.
This also coincides with the geographical characteristics of the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania – it got its name “The Keystone State” because of its geographical location and its crucial role in the early history of the United States. The eastern and western parts of the state are important strongholds of the Democratic Party, while the rural areas in the middle tend to support the Republican Party. This political pattern is similar to the national electoral map of the United States. Therefore, some people jokingly call Pennsylvania “The United States of Pennsylvania”. Speaking of Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, it has the most electoral votes among the seven crucial swing states and can play a decisive role. So, there has long been a saying that “Whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the whole country”. In the 1980s, the state was relatively inclined towards the Republican Party. President Reagan and President George H. W. Bush both won the support of voters here, and it was regarded as a “Light Red State” at that time. But in the six consecutive general elections in the following 20 years, it gradually changed to a “Light Blue State” until Trump won the last election.
**From Washington to Pittsburgh: Trump in the Storm**
An important factor for the previous shift from red to blue was the two major metropolitan areas at both ends of the state, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. These two cities have always been important sources of votes for the Democratic Party. Philadelphia, the birthplace of the Constitution, has a large population base, and Pittsburgh is famous for its industrial history and numerous union members. During this crucial period before the 2024 general election, former President Obama, whose position in the hearts of Pennsylvania people is hard to shake, campaigned for the Democratic presidential candidate Harris at a rally at the University of Pittsburgh. Today, Biden, a native of Pennsylvania, also returned to his hometown to campaign for Harris. Their actions echo Clinton’s tour of the “swing states” in the South, aiming to form a united force and penetrate those “red counties” that have traditionally leaned towards the Republican Party. This morning, according to the message sent to me by a friend in Pennsylvania, both Trump and Harris will be in Pittsburgh next Monday, which shows its importance. What is Pittsburgh like today? Here is my brief impression from this hasty visit: This time, I entered Pittsburgh from its southeasternmost part. Perhaps because it was a rainy day, the red brick walls on both sides had turned black, and a sense of dilapidation filled my eyes and heart. Pedestrians, mostly black, were walking slowly on the old sidewalks, seemingly without a destination. I couldn’t help but roll up the car windows nervously, fearing that I might encounter window-smashing robberies in the west. Nothing happened, but there was no sign of any commercial activity on the street, and I couldn’t feel any vitality of the neighborhood. Occasionally, I could see small Trump slogans.
As I continued driving towards the middle, until near the Mellon Park neighborhood named after Carnegie Mellon, a completely different scene emerged: There was no need to use the adverb “almost” at all. At the entrance of every yard along the way, there were signs supporting Harris, and almost no one abstained. The houses here were no longer just red bricks. Instead, there were large houses with various styles. The lawns were carefully trimmed, and flowers decorated them. From time to time, there were community residents running and exercising on the street, looking active and relaxed.
When I arrived at the home of a senior sister whose family member works at the Duolingo headquarters in Pittsburgh and who used to be a Chinese media person, I finally felt a bit of what the “American Dream” was like. She told me that just last week, Pittsburgh had just introduced a new regulation prohibiting residents in some neighborhoods from putting up signs supporting candidates at their doorsteps. This was because last week, there were incidents where neighbors who supported different camps, blue and red, went to each other’s yards to remove the signs after dark.
**Comparing with New Fairfield County**
Compared with New Fairfield County, one of the five towns around Candlewood Lake, the largest lake in Connecticut.
Connecticut has always been a favored settlement place for the wealthy class. As for New Fairfield County itself, which has a decent economic foundation, although it has a certain gap compared with some of the richest super-rich gathering areas in Connecticut such as Fairfield County and New Canaan, it still has a relatively high proportion of people with higher education, and it has some similarities with the middle- and high-income neighborhoods in Pittsburgh, and it clearly leans towards the Democratic Party.
When driving through the lake area and mountain area, I passed by large houses with extremely neatly trimmed lawns and large front and back yards. Different from the relatively high-income communities in Pittsburgh, even though the political leanings might be the same, in the mountain area of New Fairfield County, I didn’t see a single sign supporting any candidate. This might be one of the differences in perception between swing states and non-swing states.
**How to Describe Pittsburgh?**
How should we describe Pittsburgh? Is it the old industrial steel “Rust Belt” in the crucial swing state? But what used to be an old people’s residential area now has many young people moving in. Naturally, there is the shadow of Carnegie. The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC), one of the top medical institutions in the United States, has risen to form a new medical center in the northeast. There are also emerging technology companies like Duolingo, where the interns are only from Harvard, Yale, MIT, etc.
The Democratic Party, which distributes money to the poor and promotes universal health care, has encountered the rise of new medical centers and emerging technology industries like Duolingo in Pittsburgh. A large number of middle-class people have been attracted to Pittsburgh. It is said that Detroit nearby also has a similar transformation opportunity. Of course, these also prove once again the reality mentioned by Vance that the Republican Party used to represent the rich, while the now the Democratic Party is becoming more and more elite. During the chat, the senior sister mentioned that the owner of a carpet store with a certain scale near Pittsburgh once complained to her that he paid $15,000 for insurance a year, but when his child really needed to see a doctor, the health insurance didn’t solve many problems, and he felt a heavy burden on his life. You should know that universal health care was one of the biggest “achievements” of the Obama Democratic era. The above is just the cost within the scope of health insurance. For example, in Pittsburgh, to have an eyesight test for getting glasses, you need to pay $140 out of your own pocket. Undoubtedly, these all contribute to the high daily living costs of the citizens.
Yesterday, Songlin forwarded me an article from The New York Times titled “Dayton v. Yale”, which talked about “The Real Majority” published in 1970. The authors, two Democrats, Scammon and Wattenberg, believed that their Democratic colleagues had misinterpreted the country’s voters. Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, wrote in his recently published book “The People’s Party: Inside the Remaking of a Multi-Ethnic Populism Coalition”: “In American politics, the working class naturally forms the majority. Those who wish to lead the country ignore this at their own risk.”
**The Candidates and the Halloween Night**
The candidate who is about to compete in the final race, Trump, successfully took over the Republican Party in 2016 and won the presidential election. This was due to his intuition about working class politics. While criticizing trade and immigration, he promised not to cut Medicare and Social Security, which actually went against the orthodox ideas of the Republican Party. If he wins again this year, perhaps part of the reason will be that he has attracted what the Democrats wrongly thought were loyal progressives – including black, Latino, Asian American, and young voters.
On the Halloween night of November 1st, American time.
In the southern neighborhood of Pittsburgh, children were hitting an inflatable doll of Trump; while according to the information in the parents’ group, in the neighborhood 40 miles to the north, children were hitting an inflatable doll of Harris.
穿越选前美国①｜眼间的分歧邱嘉秋 自九月下旬赴美参加联大，后驱车自东岸穿越到中部所经十州，亲历感受现与君分享：
说来，这是我首次在美国自驾，以前在纽约时是不敢开的，因为停车之难、之贵跟巴黎比肩。这一次，从纽约曼哈顿的第二大道出发，往麻州波士顿哈佛大学，后经康州新费尔菲尔德县湖区，经过新泽西州一路向南，到达华盛顿特区出席75周年庆祝活动后，方向西北，经马里兰州、西弗吉尼亚州向中部靠近，取道富尔顿县，抵达关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚州的首府——曾经的钢铁之都匹兹堡，短暂停留后，再经俄亥俄州穿马斯金格姆县，到达肯塔基州辛辛那提市，直至路易维尔，终抵达了此行最远的伊丽莎白镇，最后，返回辛辛那提登上了去往多伦多的班机。数来，一周内不仅算停留，可能经过还不止十州，最长一天为赶路而连续驾驶十一小时，也难免在车中休息，醒来睁眼，很难立刻分清到底路在何方。不过可以确认的是，一路下来，两党竞相抢夺着眼见之处的存在感。
邱嘉秋
星光熠熠的东海岸，无论繁华的纽约或满载历史底蕴之波士顿，无不牢牢把握着此地的深蓝底色。当然，共和党人似乎并未放弃蓝色根据地——从一座座桥上开始：上图所在，正是纽约向波士顿高速的必经且必堵之路上，远远就看到有人在过街天桥上挥手并反复敲击桥身，缓缓行驶而百无聊赖的司机如我，挂着好奇心的目光，不得不被其吸引。直到靠近，才看清他敲打的正是“投给特朗普”，这些拥戴特朗普的“美国护桥员”似乎并不像看起来那么鲁莽。而在东蓝海岸高速路上那些本来就承担着广告作用的正经广告牌上，不知是否是民主党人认为胜券在握，几乎能见到的竞选广告都属于特朗普。
尤其，从华盛顿特区自东南向西北到达匹兹堡，一路上大大小小哪怕村级广告牌全部都是特朗普或万斯搭配，甚至连我还见到了一个纳尔逊曼德拉的牌子，都没有见到哈里斯一面。
这也暗合了关键摇摆州宾州的地理特点——正因其地理位置及在美国早期历史中的关键角色而得名“拱心石州”——该州东部和西部是民主党的重要据点，而中间的乡村地区则倾向于共和党，这种政治格局与美国全国的选举版图相似，因此有人戏称宾州为 “宾夕法尼亚合众国”。说到这个拥有19张选举人票的宾州，在7个关键摇摆州中选举人票最多，具有一锤定音的作用，因此早有流传“得宾州者，得天下”之说。上世纪 80 年代，该州相对倾向共和党，里根总统和老布什总统都曾在此赢得选民支持，当时被视为“浅红州”。但此后连续 20 年的 6 次大选，逐渐转变为“浅蓝州”，直至特朗普上一次的取胜。
从华盛顿到匹兹堡，急风骤雨中的特朗普
此前红变蓝的一个重要因素正是该州东西两端的大都市区费城和匹兹堡，这两个城市一直是民主党的重要票仓，宪法的诞生地费城拥有庞大人口基数，匹兹堡以工业历史和众多工会成员著称。 在此次2024大选前关键时期，在宾州民众心中地位难以撼动的前总统奥巴马，在匹兹堡大学的集会上为民主党总统候选人哈里斯助选，宾州人拜登今天也回到了家乡味哈利斯助选，他们与克林顿的南部“摇摆州”之旅相互呼应，旨在形成合力，深入那些传统上倾向于共和党的“红县”。早上，据宾州朋友发给我的消息，特朗普和哈里斯下周一都在匹兹堡，可见其重要性。今日之匹兹堡，到底哪般模样呢？这次匆匆而过，说个表面观感：这次的路线，我是从匹兹堡的最东南部进入，或许也因为正逢阴雨，红砖墙在侧均已发黑，满满的破败感填满了我的视线和心头：黑人为主的行人蹒跚踱步在残旧的人行道上，似乎并没有目的地。我都不由紧张得把车窗都摇了上来，生怕遭遇西部的砸窗抢劫。相安无事，却也不见街头有任何商业特征，感受不到街区的一丝生气，偶然能见到特朗普的小型标语。
邱嘉秋
而继续行驶向中间行驶，直到名字取自卡内基梅隆的梅隆公园街区附近，出现了完全不同的景象：连“几乎”这个程度副词都无需使用，沿途每一家的院落门口都竖起了支持哈利斯的牌子，而且几乎没有人投“弃权票”。这里的房子，也不再只是红砖，而是混杂了各色风格的大House，草坪被精心修剪，鲜花一并装点。街上时不时有跑步锻炼的社区居民，积极且闲适。
到了前中国媒体人，也是家人在位于匹兹堡的多邻国总部工作的师姐家，才又感受到了一些“美国梦”的样子。她告诉我，就在上周，匹兹堡当地刚出台了新规定，禁止某些街区的居民在家门口插支持候选人的牌子。这是因为，上周才出现了红蓝阵营的邻里支持者，趁天黑去对方院子里拆牌子的事件。
对比此前经过的环康州最大湖泊坎德伍德湖的五个城镇之一——新费尔菲尔德县。
其所在的康涅狄格州一直以来都是富人阶层青睐的定居地。就具备不错经济基础的新费尔菲尔德县本身而言，与康州一些如费尔菲尔德县、新迦南等最富裕的超级富豪聚集区相比有一定差距，但仍然拥有较高比例高等教育人群，与匹兹堡的中产高收入街区有部分相似性，明显倾向民主党。
而穿越湖区和山区，近距离经过了遍布该地区百余座草坪修剪得极其整齐、坐拥大面积前后院的大house，与匹兹堡的相对高收入社区不同的是，即使理念一致，但新费尔菲尔德县的山地区域，我没有看到一个支持不管哪个候选人的牌子。这或许就是摇摆州与不摇摆州的观感差别之一。
再问匹兹堡到底该如何形容呢？关键摇摆州里的老工业钢铁“锈“都？但以前都是老人的住宅区，如今很多年轻人住了进来。自然有卡耐基的影子，有美国最顶尖的医疗机构之一匹兹堡大学医学中心（UPMC）崛起形成东北部的新医疗中心，还有多邻国这种新兴科技公司，实习生都是只要哈佛、耶鲁、MIT等。
广发穷人钱、推进全民医保的民主党，在匹兹堡遇到了新医疗中心，多邻国这些新兴科技产业崛起，也吸引了大量中产来到匹兹堡，据说，附近的底特律也迎来类似的转型机遇。当然，这些也再次证明了万斯提到的现实，即以前共和党代表富人，如今民主党越来越精英。聊天中，师姐提及匹兹堡附近一家具备一定规模的地毯商场的老板曾与她抱怨，他一年一万五美元交了保险，但真到遇到孩子看病，医保并不能解决太多问题，他感到了生活负担很重。要知道，全民医保，正是奥巴马民主党时代最大的“成绩”之一。以上，还只是医保之内的花销。例如，在匹兹堡，为了配眼镜查一次视力，就需要自费140美元。无疑，都构成了高昂的市民日常生活成本。松林兄昨日转我一篇NYT的文章题为《代顿诉耶鲁》，谈及1970年出版的《真正的多数》，其作者，两位民主党人斯卡蒙和沃滕伯格认为，他们的民主党同僚误解了国家的选民。共和党民意调查员帕特里克·鲁菲尼在他最近出版的《人民党:重塑多族裔民粹主义联盟内幕》一书中写道:“在美国政治中，工人阶级自然占多数，那些希望领导国家的人忽视这一点，后果自负。
即将最终角逐的候选人，特朗普，曾在 2016 年成功接管共和党，赢得总统大选，这得益于他对工人阶级政治的直觉。他一边批评贸易和移民，一边承诺不会削减医疗保险和社会保障，其实有悖于共和党的正统观念。如果他今年再次获胜，或许部分原因将在于他吸引了民主党错误地认为是忠诚的进步人士——包括黑人、拉丁裔、亚裔美国人和年轻选民。 美国时间11月1日的万圣节之夜。
在匹兹堡南部街区，孩子们在打特朗普的充气人偶；而据家长群的信息，往北40 英里的街区，孩子们都在打哈利斯的人偶。